Russia's Central Bank lets ruble fall before holiday season

Russia's Central Bank on Monday allowed its plummeting currency to drop further on the last day of trading before the long New Year's holiday, ending a rollercoaster year for the ruble on a historic low.
The ruble slid 1.5 percent on the MICEX foreign currency exchange, to close at 34.9 rubles against the Central Bank's euro-dollar basket.
It hit 29.2 against the dollar -- a level that hasn't been seen since 2005 -- and 41.7 against the euro -- an all-time low. It is the third sharp drop in the national currency in just five days, and the 12th since Nov. 11, when the supervised slide began.

The Central Bank on Tuesday is to set the official foreign currency exchange rates to serve as the holiday benchmark before a 12-day trading break that is set to run through New Year's and Russian Orthodox Christmas on Jan. 7 and end on Jan 11.
Russia's Central Bank normally does not allow the currency to lose more than 1 percent of its value in one day. The ruble has shed more than 20 percent of its value against the dollar since its high of 23.4 against the dollar in early August.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for the first time Monday offered an explanation of government policy of incremental devaluation.

Putin said in comments carried by the ITAR-Tass agency that the ruble decline has been deliberately slow "to let the citizens get their heads around the situation."
He said the country's foreign reserves were being tapped "so that every citizen can decide what they should do with their savings."
The Kremlin is anxious to avoid a repeat of the 1998 financial crisis, when Russians rushed to withdraw their savings as the ruble plummeted suddenly, and has been letting the ruble fall bit by bit in a managed float, intervening when necessary by using foreign currency reserves to buy rubles.

The ruble's street rate at exchange booths could still decline while the foreign currency exchange is not trading. But seasonal spending could increase demand, said Yevgeny Nadorshin, chief economist at Moscow-based investment bank Trust.
"This will be a holiday time -- people will be partying and spending money," said Nadorshin. "They will need rubles for that."
Nadorshin admits that "some drop" in the street exchange rate is possible but says that the government will make sure the exchange booths have an adequate amount of cash available to prevent any shortages.

Analysts have estimated that the Central Bank has spent tens of billions dollars weekly to support the ruble.
The shrinking ruble is a symptom of energy-dependent Russia's struggle in the global meltdown. Growth estimates for 2008 have been slashed from 7.8 percent in July -- when oil prices reached historic highs -- to 6 percent, as Putin announced Monday.
In a rare concession, Putin admitted the financial crisis had dented Russia's economic performance, but used it as a source of motivation for his Cabinet.

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Fundamental Outlook for Japanese Yen: Bullish

- Industrial Production Fell 8.1% in November, Which Was the Fastest Pace in 55 Years - Inflation Slowed To 1% From 1.7% in November
- Japanese PMI Fell To 30.8 from 36.7, Which Was the Lowest Since Records Began In 2004

The Japanese Yen lost ground to the dollar for the first week in two months as Japanese fundamental data signaled that the economy is headed into a prolonged recession. Indeed, industrial production declined 8.1%, which was the fastest pace in 55 years. Additionally, the record low PMI reading of 30.8 leaves little hope that activity in the world’s second largest economy will rebound in the near-term as companies continue to pull back in the face of a recession. The release of the BoJ minutes revealed that the committee had discussed taking on credit risk a month before they started buying short-term debt following their announcement of a 0.2% rate cut. Policy makers stated that the increasing difficulty of Japanese companies to obtain credit due to “deteriorating markets” forced them to take further action. Yesterday, Bank of Japan policy board member Hidetoshi Kamezaki said officials may consider “extraordinary steps” to improve access to funding for companies.

The USD/JPY would rise to as high as 91.30 last week where it ran into resistance at the 20-day SMA. The failure to break above the short-term technical indicator may be a sign that investors are still reluctant to abandon their Yen long positions. The deteriorating fundamentals globally have increase fears that the current global rece.

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Our outlook for the Euro against the US Dollar effectively remains unchanged. “After massive rallies that swiftly took it to multi-month highs, the Euro/US Dollar is likely to continue its correction before any further ascent. As it stands, the pair remains in a very tight short-term trading range, and the absence of any real speculative interest on a holiday-shortened trading week suggests we may see similarly lackluster price action through the very short-term."

Our outlook for the Euro against the US Dollar effectively remains unchanged. “After massive rallies that swiftly took it to multi-month highs, the Euro/US Dollar is likely to continue its correction before any further ascent. As it stands, the pair remains in a very tight short-term trading range, and the absence of any real speculative interest on a holiday-shortened trading week suggests we may see similarly lackluster price action through the very short-term. Our bias remains to the downside, but a hold of near-term support at 1.3825 suggests that the pair could drift higher or trade sideways until further notice.”

Our outlook for the US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair likewise remains unchanged, as the duo have effectively remained flat. “The US Dollar/Japanese Yen may continue to bounce from recent multi-year lows, as the pair has hit the bottom of its multi-year trend channel and quickly reversed. The lows likewise coincide with heavily oversold weekly oscillators, and a return to more normal market conditions would favor further US Dollar recovery. Multi-year spike lows at 87.14 should serve as a base, while next resistance is seen at the top of its short-term downtrend near 93.00. “

At the risk of sounding repetitive, sideways price action in the British Pound/US Dollar leaves our bias exactly unchanged. “The British Pound has found a short-term base against the US Dollar, holding highly-contested support near the psychologically significant 1.4700 mark. Its recent price formation likewise looks vaguely like an inverse head and shoulders pattern, and a break above 1.5500 would signal that a more medium term reversal is likely. Shorter-term, the British Pound looks to challenge previous spike-highs at the psychologically significant 1.5000 mark. “

We maintain that the US Dollar/Swiss Franc is likely to hold important Fibonacci support through the near future. “The 1.0670 mark represents the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2300-0.9640 move, and said level may continue to contain declines through price action in the coming weeks. The shorter-term picture is much more difficult to decipher, as the severity of recent USD/CHF moves leaves little in the way of significant resistance levels. Previous spike-highs just above 1.1300 represent the next level of clear resistance, and the USD/CHF could effectively remain within a range through the holiday-shortened week of trading.”

Our outlook for the USD/CAD has remained effectively unchanged as price has remained stable. “The US dollar has found a base against the Canadian Dollar at the 1.2000 mark, representing the confluence of the USD/CAD’s short-term rising trendline and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0300-1.3020 move. Said level is likely to contain any short-term declines in the USD/CAD, while intraday spike-highs near 1.2400 represent subsequent support. A break below 1.2000 would negate our short-term bullish bias. “

Our Australian Dollar outlook remains unchanged on almost-exactly flat AUD/USD price action. “The Australian dollar has shown clear difficulty in clearing psychologically significant support at 0.7000 against the US Dollar, which likewise represents the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 0.8520-0.6010 decline. Inability to clear said resistance mark would definitively suggest that likely short-term direction is to the downside—favoring Australian dollar weakness. Support can be found at the AUD/USD’s short-term rising trendline, which roughly comes in at 0.6800. A break lower signals that a move towards previous support in the 0.6500-0.6600 range is likely.”

The New Zealand dollar finds itself almost exactly at support of a minor rising short-term trendline, with a break lower to signal further declines are likely. The pair has thus far failed at the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement of 0.6960-0.5190 at 0.6070, and such a move keeps our short-term trading bias to the downside. A break of 0.5700 invites a move towards intraday congestion zones in the 0.5400-0.5500 range.

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[ForexGen] provides appropriate services satisfying the needs of all business partner's specified situation and requirements.

Euro Holds Near Record Highs Versus British Pound, Both Remain Under Pressure Against US Dollar

The euro continues to trade near record highs versus the British pound, as the pair has done little but consolidate below 0.9500 - 0.9550. On the flip side, the individual currencies have gone relatively unchanged versus the US dollar, leaving EUR/USD to consolidate below 1.40 while GBP/USD has traded in a range of approximately 1.4700 - 1.4850. The moves came following the release of disappointing UK GDP revisions, as the economy actually contracted 0.6 percent during Q3 compared to initial estimates of a 0.5 percent contraction.

The GDP figures confirm that the UK fell into recession for the first time since 1990-1991 as a result of the sharpest drop in consumer spending since 1995 and a decline in investment as the financial crisis took its toll. The Bank of England has already cut rates to 2.00 percent, the lowest since 1951, but this data only adds to speculation that they will reduce the Bank Rate by another 50bps in January. As a result, the odds remain in favor of further declines for the British pound, especially against the euro.

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British Pound Technical Outlook

The British Pound has found a short-term base against the US Dollar, holding highly-contested support near the psychologically significant 1.4700 mark. Its recent price formation likewise looks vaguely like an inverse head and shoulders pattern, and a break above 1.5500 would signal that a more medium term reversal is likely.

Shorter-term, the British Pound looks to challenge previous spike-highs at the psychologically significant 1.5000 mark.

Euro Technical Outlook

The Euro has stalled at significant resistance against the US Dollar, and we see further scope for Euro/US Dollar weakness through upcoming trade. After such dramatic US Dollar declines, we would expect to see similarly sharp corrections. A reversal at the pair’s 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of its 1.6040-1.2330 decline and 200-day Simple Moving Average signals further dramatic advances are unlikely.

The very short term shows that the Euro/US Dollar has thus far held short-term intraday lows of 1.3825, but a break below signals that a move towards previous lows near 1.3600 is likely.

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Irish recession, record-strong euro means Christmas boom for Northern Ireland shops

Northern Ireland (AP) -- Recession fears across Europe have consumers spending less and retailers fearful of the future. But one Northern Ireland border town is enjoying the biggest shopping spree in its history.
A record-strong euro and deepening recession in the neighboring Republic of Ireland have turned Newry in recent months into the most intensively shopped spot in Ireland -- if not the continent. The 5-mile (8-km) traffic jams and patience-shattering hunts for a parking spot are already the talk of the island.
The phenomenon could reach its peak this weekend before Christmas as tens of thousands travel from up to 12 hours' drive away to cash in on Northern Ireland shops pricing goods in record-cheap British pounds.

"No, never been to the 'black north' before. Never seen any reason to come," said Sean Magee, 35, a short-of-work construction worker from faraway Limerick, southwest Ireland, in the parking lot of Newry's glitziest shopping center, the 55-shop Quays.
Magee bore the broadest of smiles and the fullest of shopping carts. He and his two friends, who had traveled eight hours by work van the night before and slept rough in the back, were pushing similar loads of beer, cider and liquor -- much of it produced in the Irish Republic yet available for less than half the price in Northern Ireland.
"Never bought so much booze in one go before, but you'd be crazy not to. Think I'm good 'til St. Pat's," Magee said, referring to Ireland's national holiday of St. Patrick's Day on March 17. "And this is sure to be a New Year's to remember!"

Then he donned his best Arnold Schwarzenegger-as-Terminator accent and cast a cold eye back on the shopping center. "I'll be back," he said to laughter all around.
Veteran shoppers, store owners and retail experts long have watched the ebb and flow of shoppers across Ireland's border. Different sales-tax policies and the shifting values between the north's British pound versus the euro -- and, before 2002, the old Irish punt -- usually have meant particular goods were cheaper on one side than the other.
But never like this since Ireland's partition in 1921. These days, about the only thing cheaper in the south -- increasingly decried by shoppers as "the Rip-off Republic" -- is the vehicle fuel required to make the trip north.

Several months ago, the pound was worth 50 percent more than the euro, yet many British-priced goods already were cheaper than in the independent south. That reflects the better economies of scale and higher commercial competition in the United Kingdom versus the Irish Republic.
Today, thanks to a perfect storm of cross-border contrasts -- the euro is approaching parity in value with the pound, the British have cut sales tax while the Irish have raised theirs, and British retailers are slashing prices because of recession in Britain rather than boom in Northern Ireland -- savings for north-bound shoppers are at least 30 percent and usually more, depending on what you're buying.
For Fiona O'Mahony, a mother of two from the Dublin suburbs, it's all about the nappies, a.k.a. diapers.
"Pampers are a big part of the household budget these days. It's not festive, but it's reality," said O'Mahony, 32, whose cart was full of diapers, formula and children's clothes.

O'Mahony left behind the kids with hubbie for a cross-border raid with her girlfriends, who traveled up by convoy to ensure they could carry a maximum load back. They had debated whether to fly to New York City for Christmas shopping -- like they did at least annually, cashing in on the weak U.S. dollar during Ireland's Celtic Tiger boom that died last year -- but decided that Ulster was a better fit for newfound recession.
"No more 'Sex and the City' for us," she quipped. Instead, Belfast will substitute for New York as the girls planned deeper excursions into British territory over the weekend, reaching the mecca of many southern explorers -- Ireland's only Ikea, east of Belfast -- on Sunday.
"We'll never make it. We'll never have the room. I'll have to post one of the girls back to Dublin," she said.

The daily battle of Newry begins at dawn, as shoppers leave their hotel rooms -- like gold dust at the moment -- or arrive before 8 a.m. openings in vain hope of beating the build-up of traffic back to the border a few miles (kilometers) away.
Peter Murray has been general manager of Newry's oldest shopping center, the 60-shop Buttercrane, for the past 20 years and seen good times and bad -- and nothing like this.
"Newry is bucking all the doom and gloom thanks to the biting recession down south and the amazing power of the euro," Murray said.
He said the Buttercrane alone was getting about 200,000 shoppers a week -- this in a city with a population under 50,000 -- and shops were reporting 125 percent growth in sales from customers using euros.

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Swiss Franc Technical Outlook

The USDCHF nearly dropped below 1.04 this morning. Potential trendline support drawn off of the March and July lows may provide the demand needed to inspire a rally / consolidation.

BB difference has exceeded the level that was reached at the height of the early 2008 decline that saw the USDCHF plummet below 1. The implications are that the decline is stretched and that at least a retracement is due.

Euro Technical Outlook

This is truly an historic month (and year for that matter) for the EURUSD. At this point, the EURUSD has rallied over 15% for the month. The record rally in % terms for one month is about 11%, and that was in February 1973! The month is not over and the pair could come off substantially in these market conditions.

The EURUSD sliced through 1.4 (50%) and 1.45 (61.8%) like a warm knife through butter and is now putting the 200 day SMA (red line) to work. The diagonal line on the chart is the former long term support line drawn off of the February 2002 and March 2006 lows. That line crosses 1.4776 today and increases about 6 pips per day. Worthy of note is that Bollinger Band difference is higher than it was during the strongest part of the previous decline. If anything, this suggests that at least a range should take hold soon.

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If you want to make big profits in forex trading
you need to decide the time frame you wish to tradhere we will compare forex day trader with forex trend following and the clear winner is...

Forex trend following.
It's really a no contest because forex day trader doesn't work. Before we compare the two lets get rid of the forex day traders make money. You have seen all those fantastic track records - but they all have a problem and it's this disclaimer:
Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown".
Let's compare the two methods of trading:

Validity of Data
Of course if you want to trade you need data and this data needs to be reliable.
Forex day trader data simply is not. Why?
All volatility within a day or a few hours is random. You can't trade it no matter how good your system is. Support and resistance in short periods is not valid and daily price moves can go anywhere.
Once you move to trend following the data is over long enough periods to trade the odds and that's exactly what you need, to have a chance of currency trading success.

Cutting losses
You can cut losses in both but due to the nature of forex day traders your going to have a lot of them. There is no real difference between the two discipline here they can both keep losses small. Now we need to look at profits - you need these to cover your inevitable losses as the old saying goes so lets see which method is best.

Running Profits
forex day trader has huge amount of losing trades and will get lucky and win now and again however what forex day traders do? Cut them! So they have small losses (a ton of them) and an occasional profit which is small.

What does this mean?
An eventual wipeout of equity.
The trend follower has a distinct advantage he can keep his losses small and run his profits and they can be huge. The big forex trends can last for weeks or months and if these are held, profits can easily cover losses and make a big long term gain.
I know people who trend follow and lose 80% of the time - but they make triple digit annual gains because they run their profits.
Finally...

There is a huge industry in online trading that promotes day trading as an easy way to riches - just follow the simulated, back tested track record and win but no one does long term.
forex day trader is promoted as low risk but its actually high risk.
Forex trend following if done correctly, can help you achieve currency trading success and really there is no contest between the two - if you want to make money, try forex trend following and forget day trading.


[Why ForexGen?]

1. Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pips in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
2. Scandinavian quality with Swiss precision, funds secured and local agents in 18+ countries.
3. ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
4. Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
5. Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
6. ForexGen offers a free trial Forex demo account that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.